What Does President-Elect Trump Mean For The Cannabis Industry? By Hifi Farms Advisor Sam Chapman
With President-Elect Trump now in the books, many people understandably are asking how a Trump Presidency will affect the cannabis industry as a whole. Here are my initial thoughts on the subject. Please take them with a grain, or a heap of salt.
It’s too early to make any real assumptions
If we have learned anything about Trump over the past six months, it’s that he is truly unpredictable. It’s simply too early to make any educated guesses as to what a Trump presidency will actually look like a few months from now.
Cannabis went 8 for 9 last night
November 8th was the biggest win for the cannabis industry to date, this fact cannot be overstated. Most notably California legalized cannabis, the world's 6th largest economy & the largest cannabis economy with 55% in support, along with Massachusetts (53%), Nevada (53%), and Maine (still counting votes, but leaning in favor at 51%).
All four states that had medical cannabis on the ballot passed with flying colors, including Florida (71%), North Dakota (64%), Arkansas (52%), and Montana (57%) rolling back some bad medical regulations.
Arizona was the only loss (47%), which is likely a result of the campaign being massively under-funded.
This election has shown that Cannabis is starting to rapidly dissolve as a partisan issue
If there is one big take away from the this election that deserves some serious examination, it’s the fact that we elected Trump as President, yet cannabis still won HUGE, across the nation. This lends credence to something I’ve been saying for several years now: cannabis will not be a partisan issue for much longer. Anyone, especially Republicans these days, that comes out hard against cannabis is risking mid-term political suicide in my opinion. Will Republicans still rail against cannabis in certain instances where it is safe to do so? You bet. Are the number of places where it’s safe to have hard anti-cannabis stances dwindling? Absolutely. Just look at any updated national cannabis map and you can see the momentum we’ve gained this election cycle. Will Republicans be able to hold off passing meaningful reform now that California has legalized and is coming online? Time will tell, but I seriously doubt it.
Trump’s public stance on cannabis has been focused on respecting states rights
Trump has stated on the record several times that he believes strongly in states rights, and will continue to do so when it comes to cannabis. Below are some quotes from Trump on cannabis and states rights. H/T to Marijuana Majority for compiling these!
“And then I really believe you should leave it up to the states. It should be a state situation… In terms of marijuana and legalization, I think that should be a state issue, state by state.” http://bit.ly/2fTv7OR
“I think it’s up to the states. I’m a states person. I think it should be up to the states, absolutely.” http://bit.ly/2elk0x6
“If they vote for it, they vote for it." http://cs.pn/2eMlxuM
In the event that the economy tanks, cannabis is likely to weather the storm.
Assuming Trump doesn’t completely delete the progress cannabis reform has made over the past decade (still too early to know), even in the event of a complete market crash, the market for legal cannabis is not going anywhere. That reality should equate to resilience for the current industry, as well as continuing opportunities for growth and investment, including in newly open states. The current trajectory and momentum the industry is seeing will not be easily knocked off course.
All in all, let’s not jump the gun too quickly on how we think this will play out for the cannabis industry. I believe there will be hiccups, but not road blocks. We are too far down the path to be forced backwards now, we can only be diverted to different paths toward the same goal of eventually ending prohibition for all.